According to a report issued by the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum (CAF), Ontario’s labour force will need more than 48,000 new certified journeypersons to meet anticipated employment growth and demand through 2028.

CAF’s annual Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades report for the province lists the following trades in greatest demand over the course of the next ten years: welder, cook, industrial mechanic (millwright), heavy-duty equipment technician, steamfitter/pipefitter, carpenter, hairstylist, construction electrician, automotive service technician, and plumber.

The good news is that while the number of certifications required in those trades are highest in the province, not all face projected shortfalls in projected journeypersons. In the construction trades, for example, plumbers, construction electricians and carpenters all are projected to have surplus journeypersons in the system by the end of the study period.

The report says that while these projections reflect a strong rise in new apprentice registrations since 2017, they may not help cure those trades of their respective labour shortages, given record-low unemployment levels.

Meanwhile, steamfitters/pipefitters are expected to have slightly fewer journeypersons than required, while welders, millwrights and heavy-duty equipment technicians are expected to face significant shortfalls.

Growth spurring demand

Spurring demand for new apprentices is the continuing rate of economic growth across Ontario. Estimates suggest that provincial GDP will average 1.9 percent in the near term, as strong non-residential investment and export growth offset softens shortfalls in residential investment and consumer spending.

Demand for construction in particular will spike in 2020. BuildForce Canada’s most recent outlook suggests that construction workforce requirements will rise to meet demands from large infrastructure and other engineering project demands. These include the construction of an international bridge in Windsor, two major nuclear refurbishments in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Southwestern Ontario, as well as numerous major ongoing and planned transit projects also in and around the GTA.

As a result, annual certification requirements for new journeypersons in the top 10 Red Seal trades are expected to peak at close to 7,000 in 2020. Despite an anticipated slowing of the pace of growth after 2020, says the report, more modest employment growth and rising workforce retirements are expected to drive demand for an estimated 48,650 newly certified journeypersons across the 2019 to 2028 period.

Over the same period, recent increases in new program registrations are projected to contribute to a potential 64,800 newly certified journeypersons. Although on aggregate the numbers suggest a sufficient supply of certified skilled workers, an analysis at the trade level suggests potential misalignments between demand and supply in a number of trades.

New registrations increasing

New registrations have gradually increased since 2016. This trend is projected to continue over the forecast period. Completions increased significantly between 2008 and 2014, but have since declined, reaching a low of 5,930 in 2018. Assuming that recent growth trends continue, new registrations are expected to increase over the forecast period, increasing the expected number of newly certified journeypersons.

The largest increase in new registrations since the 2018 edition of the CAF report is projected for construction electrician (21 percent) and industrial mechanic (20 percent). Both are attributed to a higher number of infrastructure projects and industrial sector requirements over the forecast period. Several trades are expected to see declines over the same period, with the most significant projected for cooks (-47 percent) and welders (-28 percent). Registrations in the cook program have fallen steadily over the past decade, down from 1,200 in 2010 to just 400 in 2017.

Over the forecast period, new registrations for construction electrician are projected to increase, exceeding the number of new registrations for automotive service technician. Steamfitter/pipefitter remains the trade with the fewest new registrations, and with minimal fluctuation expected, despite a significant increase in demand.

Apprentices getting older

One of the more curious facts from the report is that the average age of new registrants in the top 10 Red Seal trades is increasing.

The most notable change over the past four years has been a significant decline in the share of new registrants under the age of 20, which fell from 33 percent in 2013 to 25 percent in 2017. The largest increase was observed in the 25 to 29 age cohort. This suggests new apprentices are not just getting slightly older, but potentially entering the trades as a second career or following other forms of post-secondary education.