While the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to wreak havoc across Canada in 2020, the economy is expected to rebound in 2021.

In the most recent edition of its Major City Insights report, the Conference Board of Canada is forecasting a drop in national GDP of as much as 25 percent in the second quarter of this year and 4.3 percent for the year as a whole. It adds that as physical distancing measures are relaxed through the spring and summer, the economy will begin to return to normal. It forecasts a growth in GDP of 6 percent in 2021.

The Conference Board calls the economic impacts of the pandemic, “a crisis unlike anything that most of us alive today have ever experienced.” It says that physical distancing requirements and the closure of non-essential businesses have brought a large portion of the economy to a virtual standstill.

As a result of such measures, nearly three million Canadians are expected to lose their jobs, and the national unemployment rate is expected to spike at around 14.4 percent. Despite this, the Conference Board projects that the job market and the economy as a whole will bounce back solidly in 2021. It calls the response by governments to support businesses and consumers “extraordinary”, adding that the cost of such support payments will cause the federal deficit to reach as high as $125 billion.

The Conference Board study looks at the economic impacts and likely growth prospects of 13 major Canadian cities. Three of those—Ottawa, Toronto and Hamilton—are in Ontario, and are expected to perform among the top five in the country this year.

Ottawa’s economy, which grew by 2.6 percent in 2019 and averaged growth rates of 2.7 percent over the past five years, is expected to contract by 2.4 percent in 2020—the lowest contraction among all 13 surveyed cities. The Conference Board expects the city’s economy to grow by 4.9 percent in 2021.

Part of the reason for Ottawa’s performance is the influence of the federal government on the city’s economy. Output in the public sector is expected to expand by 0.4 percent in 2020, as will output in the healthcare sector (by 2.4 percent). Those growing industries will help offset output losses in the city’s other sectors, including drops of 0.5 percent in the finance, insurance and real-estate sector, 41.6 percent in the accommodation and food service sector, and 18 percent in the entertainment industry.

Toronto’s economy, which has grown at an average rate of 3.1 percent between 2014 and 2018, but which dropped to 1.9 percent in 2019, is expected to lose 3 percent in 2020 before rebounding by 6.2 percent in 2021.

The Conference Board expects Toronto’s public administration, health care and construction industries all to post positive growth rates in 2020. In addition, it says, output in the finance, insurance, and real estate sector will remain essentially flat. Other industries in the city, including its accommodations and food industry (-40.2 percent), and arts, entertainment and recreation (-17.8 percent) are expected to be hit hard.

Toronto’s residential construction sector is expected to perform well in 2020. Starts fell to just over 30,000 units in 2019—a drop of nearly 26 percent from 2018—and are expected to rise to more than 34,300 in 2020. The increase is expected to be spurred by low interest rates and supportive federal programs. These, in turn will help to increase the number of starts to nearly 40,000 units in 2021.

Finally, the Conference Board reports that Hamilton’s economy, which has increased at an average rate of 2.7 percent over the past five years, to contract by 3.2 percent in 2020 before growing by 6.0 percent in 2021.

The city’s arts, entertainment and recreation (-17.6 percent), accommodation and food (-40.4 percent), and transport and warehousing (-10.4 percent) sectors are expected to feel the brunt of the economic storm, but its residential construction sector is expected to gain 3.2 percent in 2020.