A strong post-pandemic recovery, driven by steady demand in the residential and non-residential sectors, coupled with widespread retirements, will require Ontario construction employers to hire nearly 72,000 workers between now and 2027, the latest data from BuildForce Canada suggests.

The data, which was published on March 15, suggests that construction work in the province will peak in 2023 with sustained demand for housing and non-residential construction. After that, the sectors’ paths diverge. Activity in the residential sector is expected to slow after 2023, as demand for new housing slows with rising interest rates. By the end of the BuildForce forecast period, employment in the residential sector is forecasted to decline by more than 11,000 workers, or approximately 5% of the 2021 workforce, to 2027.

The forecast for the non-residential sector, meanwhile, shows sustained activity through 2026. Demands created by major infrastructure projects, including the GTA priority transit projects, will increase the non-residential construction workforce by 23,000 workers (an increase of 12% of the 2021 labour force).

When those pressures are added to the projected retirement of more than 56,300 workers – 13% of the current labour force – the industry will need to recruit approximately 71,800 workers over the six-year forecast period.

And although the industry’s efforts to recruit from new pools of workers is bearing fruit, with the non-residential sector expected to draw in more new-entrant workers under the age of 30 than it loses to retirement over the forecast period, a skills shortage could be possible with a good deal of experience lost with retiring workers.

“Ontario’s construction and maintenance industry showed tremendous resilience throughout the pandemic in 2020,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “By shifting resources, effectively managing risk and new health protocols, as well as expectations, the industry quickly rebounded in 2021. However, ongoing strong employment demands and a lag in the return to the labour force of some older workers contributed to labour supply constraints for most trades and occupations and pushed unemployment rates in the province’s construction labour force to near record-low levels.”

Because Ontario is made up of different regions with different infrastructure demands and labour force requirements, worker mobility among regions is not always assured. That appears to be the case over the BuildForce forecast period, with three of the five regions projected to see workforce increases through 2027.

Regional construction activity in Central Ontario is expected to reach a peak in 2022 before moderating through the end of the forecast period. Construction employment in the region is expected to rise by 2%, or by just over 2,400 workers, by 2027.

Construction employment in Eastern Ontario is expected to reach a peak in 2024 and remain elevated through the remainder of the forecast period. By 2027, a rise in overall employment alongside an estimated 7,000 retirements will require the local industry to recruit an additional 9,800 workers.

The Greater Toronto Area will see an ease in residential demands coupled with a rapidly growing non-residential sector. Construction employment is estimated to increase by some 9,900 workers (+6.2%) by 2027 compared to 2021.

Northern Ontario is expected to see a peak in construction employment in 2022 and 2023, as demand for major mining and utility projects is complemented by increased institutional-sector investment and a moderate increase in residential activity. By the end of the forecast period, regional construction employment is expected to fall by nearly 950 workers (-4%) compared to 2021 levels.

Finally, Southwestern Ontario should see a peak in labour demands in 2022 as commercial building activity recovers from the pandemic and residential demands continue to increase. However, as current projects are completed, construction employment is expected to decline by some 2,800 workers (-4%) over the forecast period.

While Ontario’s construction sector has generally relied on a steady flow of journeypersons through its apprenticeship programs, the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have interrupted that flow.

Apprentice registrations in the province’s 20 largest trade programs have been on the rise since 2016 and increased by 32% to nearly 11,000 in 2019. Registrations dropped by one-third in 2020, however, as public health measures relating to the pandemic imposed significant obstacles to the delivery of in-school training and negatively impacted apprentice employment.

Based on the current pace of new apprenticeship registrations and completion trends, BuildForce suggests the bricklayer, glazier, industrial electrician, residential air conditioning systems mechanic, and welder trades may be at risk of undersupplying workers.