Residential workforce will have to grow by 83% to deliver federal housing targets: BuildForce report
A new report by BuildForce Canada suggests that, for the residential construction sector to meet the targets set out by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation to close Canada’s housing supply gap, it will need to grow its labour force by more than 80% over the next ten years.
The organization’s Residential Scenario Outlook report compares the current pace of housing construction in the country to those required to meet the federal housing target of building an additional 3.5 million new housing units by 2033. The report finds the housing sector will have to grow its workforce to just under 1.04 million workers to meet that demand, while the non-residential sector will have to grow its workforce by an additional 19% to construction the infrastructure needed to support those new homes.
“Achieving [these] targets would require a significant increase in the annual rate of housing starts over the next decade,” said BuildForce Executive Director Bill Ferreira. “This increase would be set to occur in an environment where the construction sector is already struggling in terms of labour to keep up with current demand levels.”
Under the BuildForce scenario, housing starts would have to increase by 149% above baseline levels over the next 10 years to meet affordability goals. Housing starts will rise from just over 233,000 units in 2023 to approximately 662,000 units by 2033.
The impacts of this increase will be felt most in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia, where the housing affordability gaps are greatest. Each province could require a doubling or near-doubling of their respective residential construction labour forces to accommodate the projected growth.
The challenge is, says BuildForce, the industry’s labour markets are already operating under challenging conditions.
“Meeting these ambitious new-housing targets will depend on the industry’s ability to ensure a balanced and sustainable approach to labour force development and resource allocation,” said Ferreira.
"Meeting the workforce demands to address housing affordability over the next decade will require targeted and monumental recruitment efforts from industry, trades schools, and government,” said Kevin Lee, CEO of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association. “We need to continue to actively recruit Canadians into the skilled trades and residential construction sector, reform the immigration system to allow in new Canadians who have the skills and aptitude to build homes, and bolster innovation and support productivity through de-risking investment in factory-built systems.”