Several key indicators are suggesting that tight labour market conditions may be easing across the country.

In its wrap up of the third quarter of last year, Statistics Canada noted several key findings, including the fifth consecutive drop in the number of job vacancies reported by employers.

Vacancies fell by 69,900 (-9.0%) to 706,100 in the third quarter of 2023. The figure has been on a steady decline since it reached a record high of 990,900 in the second quarter of 2022.

Meanwhile, payroll employment rose for the 10^th consecutive quarter, this time by 117,600 (+0.7%) in the third quarter of 2023. And the national job vacancy rate—which corresponds to the number of vacant positions as a proportion of total labour demand—decreased to 3.9% from 4.3% in the previous quarter. This was the fifth consecutive quarterly decline and the lowest rate since the first quarter of 2021 (3.8%).

While job vacancies decreased in the third quarter of 2023, the number of unemployed persons (from the Labour Force Survey) increased by 79,500. As a result, there were 1.7 unemployed persons for every job vacancy in the third quarter, up from 1.4 in the previous quarter, and 1.1 in the third quarter of 2022.

Despite these continued increases, the unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio in the third quarter of 2023 remained below pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, which were typically above 2.0.

Consistent with the easing in labour market tightness, recent results from the Canadian Survey on Business Conditions for the fourth quarter of 2023 indicated that 40.3% of businesses expect at least one labour-related obstacle over the next three months, down from 47.7% in the third quarter. The most commonly expected labour-related obstacle in the fourth quarter was recruiting skilled employees (29.4%).

Fewer job vacancies in trades and related occupations

Of note, the number of job vacancies declined by 9,300 (-6.5%) to 134,200 in trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations in the third quarter, marking the fifth straight quarterly decline from the record high (182,300) reached in the second quarter of 2022.

On a year-over-year basis, the number of unfilled positions in trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations fell by 42,700 (-24.1%) in the third quarter of 2023. Construction trades helpers and labourers (-6,900; -27.4%) and transport truck drivers (-6,800; -25.1%) recorded the largest decreases in vacancies within the group. These two occupations were also among the top-10 occupations with the largest annual decreases in vacancies in the third quarter.

Fewer job vacancies six provinces

The number of vacant positions declined in six provinces and was little changed in the other four in the third quarter. Ontario (-29,700 to 246,800) reported the largest quarter-over-quarter decline, followed by Quebec (-25,400 to 165,400) and British Columbia (-9,200 to 114,700). Year over year, job vacancies fell in nine provinces and were little changed in Saskatchewan.