A new poll finds that although Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives hold a lead over the Ontario Liberal Party, the Premier’s plan to build a tunnel under Highway 401 may be dividing voters.

The poll, which was prepared by Liaison Strategies for Focus Ontario, finds the PCs ahead in the polls by nine percentage points over the provincial Liberals among decided voters. When asked about the government’s proposal to build the Highway 401 tunnel, most respondents said they would rather see the government focus on other priorities, such as improving public transit or improving local roads and intersections.

“If a provincial election were held today, Doug Ford’s PCs would lead the Ontario Liberals by nine points among decided and leaning voters, 44% to 35%,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. “While the PCs hold strong leads in Eastern Ontario (54%) and Southwestern Ontario (52%), the Liberals are ahead in the 416 (45%) and the North (40%), and are currently leading in the 905 (44%).”

On the Highway 401 tunnel, the survey found that just 28% of respondents support the project, while 45% were opposed. When asked to choose the top transportation priority for the GTA, only 6% of respondents chose the tunnel. Instead, 33% said the priority should be improving public transit, followed by improving local roads and intersections at 20%.

Other key findings from the survey looked at

• Transparency and safety: 78% of believe the government should publicly release previous studies on the tunnel, even if they raise serious concerns.
• Safety concerns: While 58% of respondents were initially concerned about safety and construction risks, that number jumped to 75% (with 49% ‘very concerned’) after being informed of reported internal risks like roadway collapse.
• Opportunity costs: If the tunnel project limits funding for other priorities, 46% of Ontarians would prefer the province focus on healthcare, education or housing. Only 7% would prioritize building the tunnel over these areas.
• Trust and impact: 36% of Ontarians have ‘no trust at all’ in the government to manage the project safely, on budget, and transparently. Furthermore, 47% believe the tunnel will do ‘nothing’ or ‘a little’ to actually reduce traffic congestion.
• Project characterization: Nearly half of Ontarians (48%) describe the project as ‘unrealistic, risky and wasteful,’ compared to 18% who view it as a ‘bold, nation-building project’.

"The data suggests that only PC voters support the project," said Valentin. "56% of PC supporters back the tunnel, 20% oppose it and 16% are neutral. Across almost every other demographic and region, opposition outweighs support. With 78% supporting the release of previous studies, transparency will likely be a key issue for the government moving forward."